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May 10th 2012
- The Honorable Artillery Company, London
On May 10th 2012, the second edition of Bellwether Europe took place to draw industry leaders into debate, discussion and reflection on the future of global capital markets.
There is a wall of doom and gloom that surrounds any discussion on European economies and capital markets today: Banking failure, liquidity freezes, negative growth and sovereign debt crisis – day after day of doomsday scenarios on the demise of the markets. The mood at Bellwether Europe was not much different.
"NO ALTERNATIVE TO REFORM POLICIES": Opening the event was Axel Weber, now executive chairman of UBS and formerly of the Bundesbank and ECB. He argued that there was no alternative to reform policies in order to improve the growth rate of Europe.
"AUSTERITY POLICIES ARE NOT WORKING": Later in the day, Alastair Darling, the former British chancellor, argued that European austerity policies were not working and were leading, as Greece shows, to the scope for a bigger crisis as creditors' demands came face to face with the problem of electoral legitimacy. Mr Darling recognised the potential for inflation to be a problem, thanks to the response to the crisis, but not for several years. Given this uncertain outlook, neither the corporate executives nor the private equity investor (Pierre Sarkozy of Carlyle) speaking alongside Alastair Darling, showed much enthusiasm for investing in Europe.
"TREASURY BONDS ARE NOT RISK-FREE": Jerome Booth of Ashmore gave an entertaining talk and claimed that it was ridiculous to regard Treasury bonds or gilts as "risk-free". Nothing is truly risk-free, he said, so it's all about the balance between risk and return.
Delivering over 150 borrowers and investors, Bellwether Europe was the place to debate the future of Capital Markets but sadly the future to those at the heart of the industry is still looking bleak.
- Basel: How do we achieve financial stability and economic prosperity?
- Where will the market create emerging avenues of finance?
- How can Europe benefit from south-south trade flows?
- What role will corporate funds play in the future of capital markets?
- EURO MARK 2: Looking for signs of life
- Re-examining the investors' safe havens
- How should bankers redeem themselves in the eyes of the public?
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| 08.00 | REGISTRATION AND REFRESHMENTS |
| 08.50 | CHAIR'S OPENING REMARKS Philip Coggan, Capital Markets Editor and Buttonwood Columnist, The Economist |
| 09.00 | KEYNOTE ADDRESS: Are we facing a zero-growth decade? Axel Weber, Chairman, UBS |
| PART 1: THE NEW REGULATORY ORDER |
| 09.30 | BASEL OR BUST: How do we achieve financial stability and economic prosperity? Moderator: Philip Coggan, Capital Markets Editor and Buttonwood Columnist, The Economist Mario Nava, Head of Unit, Banks and Financial Conglomerates, European Commission Adair Turner, Chairman, Financial Services Authority Bill Winters, Founder, Renshaw Bay and Member of the Independent Commission on Banking |
| 10.30 | NETWORKING REFRESHMENT BREAK |
| PART 2: THE NEW PECKING ORDER |
| 11.00 | HOW CAN EUROPE BENEFIT FROM SOUTH-SOUTH TRADE FLOWS? Moderator:Philip Coggan, Capital Markets Editor and Buttonwood Columnist, The Economist Rajat M Nag, Managing Director General, Asian Development Bank (ADB) Charles Robertson, Global Chief Economist, Renaissance Capital Cynthia Steer, Head of Manager Research and Investment Solutions, BNY Mellon |
| 11.50 | MARKET SIGNAL: THE RENMINBI ISSUE Stephen Green, Regional Head of Greater China Research, Standard Chartered Bank |
| 12.05 | CORPORATE CASHPOINT Moderator: Scott Moeller, Director of the M&A Research Centre, Cass Business School Simon Henry, Chief Financial Officer, Royal Dutch Shell Tom Singer, Chief Financial Officer, Intercontinental Hotels Group |
| 13.00 | LUNCH |
| PART 3: HOW TO AVOID DISORDER |
| 14.00 | EURO MARK 2: Looking for signs of life Moderator: Abhik Sen, Managing Editor, Economist Intelligence Unit Right Honourable Alistair Darling, MP Pierre Olivier Sarkozy, Managing Director and Head of Global Financial Services Group, Carlyle Group Nikhil Srinivasan, Group Chief Investment Officer, Allianz Investment Management |
| 14.55 | MARKET SIGNAL: Where is it safe to hide? Re-examining the investors' safe havens Jerome Booth, Head of Research, Ashmore Investments |
| 15.10 | AFTERNOON NETWORKING REFRESHMENTS |
| 15.30 | FEEDING THE MICRO ECONOMY Moderator: Philip Coggan, Capital Markets Editor and Buttonwood Columnist, The Economist Julian Franks, Professor of Finance, London Business School John Kay, Chair, The Kay Review of UK Equity Markets and Long-Term Decision Making, UK Government Alan Rubenstein, Chief Executive Officer, UK Pension Protection Fund |
| 16.20 | CLOSING KEYNOTE INTERVIEW: What if…? The search for growth in a volatile world Ian Bremmer, President, Eurasia Group interviewed by Robin Bew, Editorial Director and Chief Economist, Economist Intelligence Unit |
| 17.00 | CHAIR'S CLOSING REMARKS Philip Coggan, Capital Markets Editor and Buttonwood Columnist, The Economist |
| 17.05 | CLOSE OF SUMMIT AND DRINKS RECEPTION |
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 | SUMMARY PAPER Bellwether Europe 2012 brought together regulators, investors and key figures from the business world to debate the issues. The rescue measures seen so far in Europe have, at best, only bought time – others see it as having wasted valuable time. Confidence needs to be restored, and quickly. As for investors, they need to accept that there is no ‘safe haven’ and should be examining attitudes to risk given the severity of the problems in the developed world. This summary paper, sponsored by BNY Mellon, details the key discussion points from the event. Click here to download the PDF. |
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Philip Coggan, Capital Markets Editor and Buttonwood Columnist, The Economist
Author of The Economist’s Buttonwood Column, Philip Coggan will be cross-examining the views of investors and market commentators and scrutinising the future of investment in European capital markets.
Ian Bremmer, Founder and President, Eurasia Group
As the world’s leading political risk analyst, don't miss Mr Bremmer delivering a special closing examination on the future threats in the financial markets.
Pierre Olivier Sarkozy, Managing Director and Head of Global Financial Services Group, Carlyle Group
Pierre Olivier Sarkozy (half brother to Nicolas Sarkozy) works at Carlyle Group, one of the world's biggest private equity firms so he is well-equipped to join the future of the European economy debate.
Axel Weber, Chairman, UBS
There are few economists that truly understand the operation of Europe’s capital markets better than Axel Weber. Join him as he kicks off proceedings with a special keynote introduction.
Lord Adair Turner, Chairman, Financial Services Authority
Lord Adair is one of the most central figures in the current development of future banking regulation. He will therefore be joining the opening session, 'Basel or Bust....' alongside Bill Winters and Mario Nava of the European Commission.
Nikhil Srinivasan, Group Chief Investment Officer, Allianz Investment Management
With responsibility for the investment of Allianz’ global assets, Mr Srinivasan has a unique insight into the condition of Europe’s economies and capital markets. He will examine the function of the capital markets and the future of the Euro.
Bill Winters, Founder, Renshaw Bay and Member of the UK Government's Independent Banking Commission
As former Co-chief Executive of JP Morgan and member of the UK Independent Commission on Banking (Vickers Commission) there are few better placed to give insight from both sides of the regulatory fence.
Rajat M Nag, Managing Director General, Asian Development Bank
European economic recovery will be hugely dependent upon strengthening economic ties with Asia. Hear from the Managing Director General of one the most active development banks in Asia on the future investment strategy in Europe.
John Kay, Chair, The Kay Review of UK Equity Markets and Long-Term Decision Making, UK Government
John Kay is one of the UK's leading economists and commentators on the micro economy and he is currently Chair of the UK Government's Review of UK Equity Markets and Long-Term Decision-Making, a big study due to be completed in Summer 2012.
Jerome Booth, Head of Research, Ashmore Investments
As one of the leading investors in the markets today, Jerome Booth has proven the resilience of his investment strategies. Join him as he borrows deep into the markets to uncover the trends for future growth.
Alan Rubenstein, Chief Executive, UK Pension Protection Fund
With a central mission of upholding pension schemes within insolvent organisations, the significance of the UK Pension Protection Fund can only increase as the recession takes hold. Hear Mr Rubenstein discuss the prospects for the real economy.
Simon Henry, Chief Financial Officer, Shell
Mr Henry will join in a discussion on the future role of major companies in the capital markets. How much will companies look to invest in the near future and what will be the great spur to release corporate cash into the economy?
Mario Nava, Director, DG Internal Market and Services, European Commission
Mr Nava's team are responsible for designing and implementing the regulatory framework for banking and financial conglomerates throughout the European Union. Join him as he discusses the future of regulation throughout Europe.
Cynthia Steer, Head, Manager Research and Investment Solutions, BNY Mellon
Can the old markets of Europe remain competitive, dynamic and innovative in the face of foreign compeition? As senior investment advisor to the executive management of BNY Mellon Investment Management, Ms Steer will deliver the insider's perspective.
Stephen Green, Regional Head of Greater China Research, Standard Chartered
Regarded as one of the World's leading experts on China's financial markets, Dr Green will examine the liberalisation of the Renminbi. What impact will a liberalised Renminbi have upon global capital markets.
Tom Singer, Chief Financial Officer, Intercontinental Hotels Group
Mr Singer will join in a discussion on the future role of major companies in the capital markets. How much will companies look to invest in the near future and what will be the great spur to release corporate cash into the economy?
Professor Scott Moeller, Director of M&A Research Centre, CASS Business School
Scott Moeller is a frequent commentator on business issues on television (BBC, CNN, Bloomberg, CNBC) and in the press (Financial Times, Sunday Times, Independent). Join him as he examines the future role of companies in capital markets.
Robin Bew, Editorial Director and Chief Economist, Economist Intelligence Unit
Robin Bew is responsible for all editorial operations across the company worldwide, driving the intellectual debate within the business. He will be interviewing Ian Bremmer, examining future events that could make or break the financial system.
Julian Franks, Professor of Finance, London Business School Centre for Corporate Governance
Julian Franks, is a widely published academic who has received a number of awards for his work. He will be joining John Kay and Alan Rubenstein to discuss the survival of the micro economy.
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| • President, East Europe Growth Region, Dow • ISRG Chairman, City of London Corporation • Chief Executive, Pool Reinsurance • Chief Investment Officer, Pool Reinsurance Company • Credit & Market Risk Analyst, Aspen • Economist, UBS • European Head of the Global Financial Services Group, The Carlyle Group • Director of Product Management EMEA, S&P Capital IQ • Chief Executive and Co-founder, Amadeus Capital Partners • Chief Executive Officer, Central and Eastern Europe, Aon Risk Services • Chief Executive Officer, Banco BIC Portugês • Vice-president, Finance and Chief Financial Officer, EMEA, Cargotec • Chief Executive Officer, Habib Allied International Bank • Chief Executive Officer, ING Direct UK • Chief Executive Officer, MAI Insurance Group • President, SAV Credit • Global Economist, Sloane Robinson • Director, Capital Markets, Royal Bank of Canada Europe • Chief Operating Officer, ZenithOptimedia Worldwide • Chief Counsel Europe, CIT Bank • Partner, Mergers and Acquisitions, Capital Markets, Weil • Chief Executive, BMB Islamic UK • Regional Chief Financial Officer, Europe and America, Standard Chartered • Head of European Corporate Finance, Sumitomo Trust & Banking Co • Investment Director, CEE, CVC Capital Partners • Chief European Economist, HSBC Bank • Group Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Azibo Group • Partner, Head of Investment Research and Risk, BlackCat Capital • Co-chief Investment Officer, Charlemagne Capital • Chief Executive Officer, EuroCCP • Chief Executive Officer, CME Group • Chief Executive Officer, Ariya Capital Group • Acting Chief Executive Officer and Head of Investment, Hermes Fund Managers • Head of Business Intelligence (Ukraine, Eastern Europe, Caucasus), HSBC • Head of Responsible Property Investment, Hermes Pensions Management • Head of Sustainable and Responsible Investments, Aviva Investors • Chief Operating Officer Europe Middle East and Africa, Credit Suisse UK • Partner, Capital Markets, Herbert Smith • Vice-president Investment Banking Technology for Equities, JPMorgan Chase & Co. • London Capital Markets Partner, Baker & McKenzie • Capital Markets Lawyer, Norton Rose LLP • Head of EMEA Equity Capital Markets, Bank of America Merrill Lynch • Manager of Debt Capital Markets, BP plc • Managing Partner, Brookland Partners • Chief Executive Officer, Egret Management • Chief Executive Officer and Founding Partner, Hermes Pensions Management • Head of Fixed Income, Rathbones Retail Management • Chief Investment Officer, Scio Capital • Head of Bond Investments, Sumitomo Trust & Banking Co • Capital Markets Partner, Weil, Gotshal & Manges • Director of Policy and Government Affairs, AIMA • Managing Director and Head of Investment Management Europe, Capital Dynamics • Managing Director and Counsel, Banking and Capital Markets Origination Legal, Citigroup Global Markets • Head of Fund Management, QIB UK • Managing Director, Loan Markets, Lloyds Banking Group • Managing Director Operational Services, Cofunds • Managing Director, Cogent Partners • Managing Partner, Chief Investment Officer, and Director, DN Capital • Fixed Income Chief Investment Officer, New Amsterdam Capital Management LLP • Joint Head of European Business & Head of Scandinavia, Standard Life Investments • Senior Director, Market Practice and Regulatory Policy, International Capital Market Association (ICMA) • Graduate Trainee, Market Practice and Regulatory Policy, International Capital Market Association (ICMA) • Global Head Investment Bank Operations, UBS • Head of Short Term Fixed Income Origination, Bank of America Merrill Lynch • Chief Executive Officer, IGS Group • Chief Executive Officer, Wakame Global • Investment Manager, Comgest • Finance Director, Citigroup • Economic Analyst, City of London Investment Group • Investment Management Director, Brooks Macdonald Group • Investment Manager, Charles Stanley Group • Senior Investment Director, Investec Wealth & Investment • Chief Executive Officer, Team Asset Management • Investment Manager, Gore Browne Investment Management • Investment Manager and Branch Principal, 1st Port Asset Management • Senior Investment Director, Investec • Chief Executive, New Europe Advisers • Head of Private Investment, Kleinwort Benson • Chief Underwriting Officer Professional Emerging Markets, XL Insurance • Senior Manager, Ernst & Young • Deputy Chief Financial Officer, Credito Valtellinese • Chief Executive Officer, Clusterseven • Deputy Chief Investment Officer, Amundi Asset Management • Chief Executive Officer of Corporate Banking and Co-head of Corporate Markets, Lloyds Banking Group • Chief Economist and Head of Research, The British Private Equity and Venture Capital Association | • Co-director, Centre for the Study of Financial Innovation • Chief Information Officer, Amlin • Chief Investment Officer, Amlin Insurance Services • Chief Financial Officer, BOC • Chief Executive, COHORT • Global Co-chief Investment Officer, Coutts & Company • Managing Director, Europe and US, Macallan Capital • Investment Director, Cheviot • Managing Director, Wagtale Communications • Investment Director, Pantheon Ventures • Managing Director, Financial Risk Management • Managing Director, Portfolio, EBRD • Investment Advisor, IlliquidX • Portfolio Manager, Insparo Asset Management • Managing Partner, Holland Park Capital LLP • Chief Executive Officer, Brunel Capital • Chief Executive Officer, Dimensional UK and Europe, Dimensional Fund Advisors • Co-head of Investment Banking, Renaissance Capital • Chief Investment Officer, Insight Investment • Chief Investment Officer, Chief Executive Officer and Founder, Insparo Asset Management • Chief Investment Officer, Thurleigh Investment Managers • Chairman, Centaurus Capital • President and Chief Executive Officer, Fitch Ratings • Chief Executive of Convertible Bond Strategies, Avoca Capital Holdings • Chief Investment Officer, Private Wealth Management, ACPI • Chief Investment Officer, Alternative Investments, ACPI • Investment Analyst, ACPI • Chief Investment Officer, Barmac Asset Management • Chief Executive Officer, City Financial • Chief Operating Officer, Dominion Fund Management • Investment Director, Head of Research, Neptune Investment Management • Dean, Cass Business School • Chief Financial Officer E.ON Climate and Renewables, E.ON Climate and Renewables • Co-head of Asset and Liability Management, PIC • Senior Analyst - Chief Financial Officer FP Strategic Decision, Statoil • Head of Treasury and Capital Markets, The British Land Company • Investment Operations Manager, Canada Life Investments • Researcher, London School of Economics • Head of Research, Daiwa Capital Markets Europe • Associate, Capital Markets Team, Financial Services Authority • Investment Communications, Financial Risk Management • Director of External Affairs, EMEA, The Carlyle Group • Portfolio Manager, AXA UK • Investment Bank Marketing, JP Morgan • Head of DCM for Western Europe, JP Morgan • Chief Operating Officer, Renshaw Bay • Structured Credit, Renshaw Bay • Managing Director, Head of Markets EMEA, Citi • Global Head, Marketing and Branding, Citi Markets • Chief Executive Officer Wholesale Banking and Markets, Lloyds Banking Group • Head of Investments, Lloyds TSB Group- Group Pensions • Researcher - The Kay Review, Department for Business, Innovation and Skills • Head of International Listings, Europe, NYSE Euronext • Product Head, Corporate, Bank of America Merrill Lynch • Executive Director, ABN AMRO Commercial Finance • Investment Analyst, Government of Singapore Investment Corporation • Head of Investor Relations, Hermes Fund Managers • London Bureau Chief, Pensions & Investments • Banking Reporter, Bloomberg • Senior Editor, Securities and Markets, Thomson Reuters • Senior Reporter, City AM • Online Reporter, Financial News • Reporter, dealReporter Europe • European Editor, aiCIO • Online Reporter, Dow Jones Financial News • Reporter, Investor Intelligence Network • Editor, Spear’s • FT Alphaville columnist, Financial Times • Reporter, Dow Jones & Company • Online Reporter, Dow Jones & Company • Deputy Editor, Funds Global Asia • Chief Financial Officer, Shell • Capital Markets Editor and Buttonwood Columnist, The Economist • Managing Director General, Asian Development Bank • President, Eurasia Group • Chairman Designate, UBS AG • Director, DG Internal Market and Services, European Commission • Chairman, Financial Services Authority • Editorial Director and Chief Economist, Economist Intelligence Unit • Director, M&A Research Centre, CASS Business School • Founder and Member of UK Independent Commission on Banking, Renshaw Bay • Visiting Professor; Chair, The Kay Review of UK Equity Markets and Long-Term Decision Making, London School of Economics; UK Government • Chief Financial Officer, Intercontinental Hotels Group • Regional Head of Research, Greater China, Standard Chartered Bank • Head of Research, Ashmore Investment Management • Chief Executive Officer, UK Pension Protection Fund • Group Chief Investment Officer, Allianz • Managing Director, Carlyle Group • Head of Manager Research and Investment Solutions, BNY Mellon |
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| "Top people talking about all of the right issues" Naomi Chakwin, Resident Director General, Asian Development Bank |
| "High Quality Speakers" Charels Mackintosh, Chief Investment Officer, Thurleigh Investment Managers |
| "Topics were very relevant to current climate" Meeta Misna, Director Global Distribution, ACPI Investments |
| "Axel Weber was, as always, very insightful" Herta Von Stieger, Chief Executive Officer, Ariya Capital Group |
| "Great venue, good pace, good quality and breadth of speakers" Paul Stephens, Director Relationship Banking Coverage Funds, ANZ |
"Broad-based and thought-provoking" |
| "High profile speakers" Diana Cooper, Senior Investment Director, Investec |
| "The audience and the variety and quality of speakers was good" UBS |
| "The content was punchy, the programme kept to time, lots of tips and insights and Jerome Booth was excellent and very thought-provoking" Philippa Watts, Director, Product Management, S&P Quality IQ |
| "Relevant to real issues. Good quality and knowledge of contributors and excellent location" Steve Websdale, Executive Director, ABN Amro Commercial Finance |
| "Surprised by the extent to which it was engaging, relevant and interesting. Very much like the panel format with the short, sharp intermittent presentations" Howard Evans, Senior Manager, Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Bank |
| "Good quality of speakers" Remesh Yesopharan, Head of Credit Strategy, Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Bank |
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THIS is our Capital Markets event. Two years ago we focused on the threats faced by investors and how to manage them; this year conversations optimistically centred on how to identify opportunities in a zero-growth epoch. In 2013 it will be about survival. Attend Bellwether Europe to better understand your fate.
After a successful launch in Europe last year, we reconvened our audience for the 2012 Bellwether Summit to discuss how the industry can prosper in a zero-growth decade.
Bellwether Europe, part of our global series of Bellwether events, will provoke debate around the hot issues and provide solutions for how today’s capital market leaders can go about re-purposing, restoring and reinventing the sector and above all, will reawaken their optimism.
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